FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|MLB trade deadline's fantasy impact: Heavy on pitching, light on hitting

Over a blockbuster long weekend,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center Major League Baseball – in true Hollywood fashion – kept fans engaged with multiple storylines. Yes, the MLB trade deadline did drag on a little longer than usual leading up to Tuesday evening’s deadline. But the payoff was definitely worth it.

The New York Mets began the process of dismantling the most expensive roster in baseball history by shipping three-time Cy Young award winners Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander out of the NL to the two front-runners in the AL West.

And to top things off for fantasy managers, there was ample room for a sequel – with two more days of wheeling and dealing left over after Sunday night’s free agent pickups.

TRADE DEADLINE RECAP: Big splashes, surprises and disappointments across the majors

WINNERS

Texas Rangers: Except for the pitchers losing their spots in an ailing rotation, everybody wins in Texas with the addition of Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers already have the best offense in the majors, so the newcomers should enjoy more support than they received in their former locations. (Scherzer ranked 49th, Montgomery 87th among 118 qualified starters this season.)

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Lance Lynn: There’s no sugar-coating the fact that Lynn’s overall numbers with the White Sox (6.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 2.1 HR/9 in 21 starts) were terrible. However, if there’s one potentially encouraging sign for the Dodgers, it’s that he’s also posted the highest strikeout rate of his career (10.9 K.9). Beyond moving to a slightly more pitcher-friendly park in Los Angeles, there’s at least some hope that the Dodgers can uncover some hidden reason for his struggles. In his first start for L.A., Lynn tossed a quality start, fanned seven and saw the majors’ third best offense score seven runs to get him a win. That’s a pretty solid game plan going forward.

Aaron Civale: Can a pitcher with a 2.34 ERA actually get better? The short answer is no, especially when he’s enjoyed considerable luck on balls in play (.243 BABIP), an overly generous 82.7% strand rate and has a career-low strikeout rate (6.8 K/9). Regression was going to come for Civale, but the landing will be softer in Tampa Bay than it would have in Cleveland.

Newly minted closers: Playoff contenders are always in search of bullpen help at the deadline, which puts closers on mediocre teams at risk. Paul Sewald will continue to close in Arizona, but Andres Munoz (two saves, 2.92 ERA) is his likely successor in Seattle.

Scott Barlow’s departure in Kansas City opens the door for Carlos Hernandez to get saves the rest of the way. Gregory Santos picked up the first save for the White Sox after Kendall Graveman was traded. In St. Louis, Geovanny Gallegos’ stock goes up, at least until Ryan Helsley returns from the injured list.

AL-only fantasy leagues: The top talent flowed heavily in the AL’s direction at the deadline. Not only top-end talents Scherzer and Justin Verlander, but ex-Cardinals Montgomery and Jack Flaherty also can be helpful pitching additions. On the offensive side, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk headline a solid haul of hitters that also included Paul DeJong and Josh Rojas.

The NL headliners were pitchers Lynn, Sewald and Michael Lorenzen, plus new Marlins third baseman Jake Burger (25 HR).

LOSERS

Homeward-looking Angels: Cron and Grichuk, both former first-round draft picks of the Los Angeles Angels, returned to their original franchise in a package deal with the Colorado Rockies. While they’ll continue to get regular playing time, they won’t have the benefit of playing home games in Denver’s mile-high altitude.

During Cron’s three years in Colorado, he had a .977 OPS at home and a .682 OPS on the road. Grichuk had a similar split over his two seasons: .880 OPS at home, .651 on the road. Angel Stadium has been a nice hitter’s park the past few years, but not Coors Field nice.

Lucas Giolito: Though he’ll likely get more offensive support from an Angels team that ranks sixth overall (5.0 runs per game) vs. White Sox’s 23rd (4.2), the move is an overall downgrade.  The Angels will keep their six-man rotation with Shohei Ohtani remaining in the fold, which will cost Giolito a couple starts the rest of the way.

Amed Rosario: A major liability on defense, Rosario goes from an everyday starter for the Guardians to what looks like the short side of a platoon with the Dodgers. Even if he were to pick up some starts at second base, he’ll have to compete with another deadline acquisition (Kike Hernandez) who also hits lefties better than righties.

A ripple effect of the trade is that Mookie Betts – after already locking up fantasy eligibility at second base for next season – will likely fall four appearances short of the 20-game minimum to qualify at shortstop.

Injured veterans: In a couple cases, MLB teams almost had to make trades because they couldn’t wait any longer for key players to return from injuries. In Milwaukee, Rowdy Tellez wasn’t having a very good season anyway (.213, 12 HR, 36 RBI), but a broken finger on top of a forearm issue forced the Brewers to trade for Carlos Santana and Mark Canha at the deadline.

In Toronto, closer Jordan Romano tweaked his back in the All-Star Game and then reaggravated it shortly thereafter. (Though pitching four times in a five-day span might not have been the best idea.) Still in the wild-card hunt, the Jays picked up Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals. Even if Romano is 100% when he comes back, they’ll likely play it safe and split save chances between the two.

Overall, this year’s deadline could be considered heavy on pitching, but fairly light on hitting. But once Ohtani and Cody Bellinger were taken off the market, how many impact bats were really available?

Also, very few top prospects changed teams, which was a bit of a disappointment for those in keeper or dynasty formats. Still, there was a nice wave of early deals in time for the July 30 waiver pickups – and a flurry of deadline activity to give fantasy managers who may have missed out a second chance to improve their rosters.

Follow Gardner on X, formerly known as Twitter @SteveAGardner